Deloitte publishes regular economic outlook reports for Asia Pacific (monthly) and Globally (quarterly). Here I’ve shared a summary of both and links to the full articles.
Asia Pacific Economic Outlook – October 2011
China, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea
The October 2011 edition of the Asia Pacific Economic Outlook gives a near-term outlook for China, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea.
China: After many months of allowing gradual appreciation, China has decided to hold the value of its currency steady. In addition, China’s economy will likely face challenges in the future as it is currently unbalanced. Half of its GDP is stemming from investments in fixed assets, and much of this investment is not providing a positive return.
Japan: Japan’s recovery remains shaky. Global economic conditions, a rising exchange rate, and a muted domestic economy will likely continue to delay Japan’s recovery. Reconstruction, however, is expected to provide support. In all likelihood, Japanese GDP growth will enter positive territory in 2012.
The Philippines: A gloomy outlook for the world economy poses considerable downside risks to economic prospects in the Philippines. However, strong consumer demand and planned government spending will continue to prop up the economy, which is expected to expand by 4.5-4.7 percent this year.
Singapore: Singapore’s economy faces several challenges. In the near term, inflation appears to be the country’s biggest challenge. If the real estate sector undergoes a sharp correction, consumer sentiment will plummet. Going forward, an uncertain global economic environment and decelerating growth in major export destinations could adversely affect Singapore’s export-dependent economy.
South Korea: Despite downside risks to economic growth, Korea’s financial health is expected to enable it to achieve a respectable growth of 3.5-4.0 percent in 2011. Domestic spending will likely keep the economic engine running even if export demand slows down. Further, prudent macroeconomic policies and preventive financial controls may ensure that a potential banking crisis in the west does not severely damage the Korean economy.
Global Economic Outlook 4th Quarter 2011
Stressful Times
The fourth quarter edition of Deloitte Research’s Global Economic Outlook offers timely insights from Deloitte Research’s team of economists about the trends and events that are shaping the marketplace.
The issue begins with a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future of the euro and details key considerations for the long-term economic success in the Eurozone, taking into account the formidable recessionary pressures in the region’s periphery. The issue’s not-so-optimistic outlook for the United States argues that Europe’s economic problems have a high probability of getting worse, not better, and potentially dragging the United States into another recession. Even without the sovereign debt crisis, the United States is in a challenging situation, demonstrating extremely slow growth and a dormant job market.
Additionally, this edition of the Global Economic Outlook provides perspective on the factors that influence the price of gold and offers economic outlooks for China, Japan, the UK, India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
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